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Character Tournament Rankings in Japan

Discussion in 'Arcade' started by akai, Aug 19, 2007.

  1. Gernburgs

    Gernburgs Well-Known Member

    Re: Final update to Character Ranking Charts

    I knew Goh vs Eileen was a shitty match-up!!!

    Correct me if I'm wrong but even on tournament level it looks like Goh only beats Eileen 17% of the time. That means that Eileen beats Goh 83% of the time. So much for game balance...

    The balance in VF5 isn't really from character to character at all. There are actually VERY unbalanced match-ups in the game. However, I think the balance comes in with the fact that you can punish someone so hard with good yomi.

    Eileen has a HUGE advantage over Goh in general but this is lessened by the fact that if you know what the other player is going to do you will win. It's not that the characters are really that balanced compared to each other, it's that good yomi can used to punish so hard with any character that it has a balancing effect on the game...
     
  2. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: Final update to Character Ranking Charts

    How to read the "Winners" Character Specific Matchup Charts:
    Looking at the Character's "Rows," you are looking at his/her wins or win ratio, respectively. Looking at a Character's "Column", you are looking at his/her losses or loss ratio, respectively.

    For example, let's say we are interested on how Goh players fair against Eileen players for 1st place in Version C Tournaments. Going down the rows in the first chart, I find Goh's Row. Next, I looked to the right and find Eileen's Column. One can see from Goh's Row / Eileen's Column entry that Goh won only 1 time against Eileen. Looking at the second chart, that 1 victory against Eileen is a measly 0.17 win ratio (17%). If you want to see how many losses that actually entails, you can go to the first chart and look for Goh's Column / Eileen's Row entry (Goh loses to Eileen 5 times). So in the 2243 Version C Tournaments, Goh and Eileen fought against each for the championship, 6 times.

    So Gernburgs, you read it correctly; however, since that 17% is based only on 6 fights, even if it is true Eileen has an advantage over Goh, that data is not "strong" enough to support it, IMHO.
     
  3. KrsJin

    KrsJin Well-Known Member

    Re: Final update to Character Ranking Charts

    Great, thank you man.
     
  4. Chibitox

    Chibitox Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

    Re: Final update to Character Ranking Charts

    Thanks for all the time spent collecting this data, really interesting. It's kindah odd there's so few dedicated Kage players in the west compared to Japan where he's by far the most used and most efficient character in tourney.
     
  5. GMonroy

    GMonroy Well-Known Member

    Re: Version B Rankings

    That is not saying much. =P
     
  6. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    [​IMG]

    Since a new version of VF is out, I am collecting tournament data again. Most likely update this once every 4 weeks.

    The original and subsequent posts explains how the charts should be read.
     
  7. Shag

    Shag Well-Known Member

    PSN:
    ShagPSN
    XBL:
    Shagnificent
    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Good stuff as always akai!

    I never would have thought Jean would be so popular.
     
  8. Tricky

    Tricky "9000; Eileen Flow Dojoer" Content Manager Eileen

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    I'm very happy to see akira, eileen, and vane getting the amount of love that they are in R
     
  9. KrsJin

    KrsJin Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Damn, what did they do to Lau? lol

    Was looking like they couldn't tame/nerf Kage or Lau's results up until now.

    Didn't think Wolf would be sitting where he is with the new mc throw damage adjustment.
     
  10. tonyfamilia

    tonyfamilia Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Taka and Jeffry are skrong. Damn skraight.
    The Evo boys ain't getting no love, then again neither is Taka but I bet he will be a favorite soon.
     
  11. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Yeah, Goh and Brad were always at the bottom in character usage.

    I am more surprised to see Kage and Pai being used considerably less in the recent tournaments. Every time I collected the data in the past--Kage, Pai, Akira, Lau, and Jacky were always the top 5 characters used in tournaments. Not sure if the Kage/Pai players are switching over to Jean/Taka in VF5R or were there gradually less Kage/Pai players at the end of the version C days (when I stopped collecting data)...
     
  12. Truesonic2k

    Truesonic2k Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Nice to see Jeff get a boost up... Lei and Kage kinda dropped didn't they? And I agree with Tony, the EVO boys need some beefing.
     
  13. ice-9

    ice-9 Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Thanks for this akai!!

    I took the raw numbers and crunched them in a different way for an added perspective. What I did was the following:

    - Used three groups: CHAMP, TOP 2, and TOP 4

    - Calculated winning percentages for each group off of Entry numbers

    - Calculated the standard deviation of those percentages

    - Used those percentages and standard deviations to form a preliminary tier list

    Here are the results (character placement within a tier based on descending order):

    TOP 4
    More than 2 sd above mean: Jean
    1-2 sd above mean: Taka
    1 sd above/below mean: Lion, Shun, Akira, Lau, Jeffry, Kage, Eileen, Jacky, Sarah, Aoi, Vanessa, Lei, Goh, Blaze
    More than 1 sd below mean: Wolf, Pai, Brad

    TOP 2
    1-2 sd above mean: Taka, Shun, Jeffry, Akira, Jean
    1 sd above/below mean: Lion, Kage, Goh, Sarah, Lau, Jacky, Eileen, Vanessa, Aoi, Wolf, Brad
    More than 1 sd below mean: Pai, Blaze, Lei

    CHAMP
    1-2 sd above mean: Akira, Jeffry, Shun, Taka
    1 sd above/below mean: Jean, Lion, Kage, Sarah, Eileen, Vanessa
    1-2 sd below mean: Jacky, Lau, Aoi, Brad, Lei
    More than 2 sd below mean: Goh, Pai, Blaze, Wolf

    How to interpret the above?

    In terms of the sd (standard deviation) numbers, for a character to be placed 2 sds above or below the mean is statistically significant. This means that it's not likely due to chance -- this character really is overpowered or underpowered.

    If within 1 sd however, there is a big probability that differences in results are due to random sampling rather than fundamental advantage/disadvantage. More than 1 sd and less than 2 sd is a grayer area.

    In terms of which group to go with, it depends on your belief in what level of play should drive tier lists. Is it at the highest level where elite players play? In that case, you probably want to weight results for the CHAMP group more than the others.

    Perhaps you believe that at the CHAMP level it's more about individual players than it is about character (i.e. Itazan would win tournaments whether with Shun or with Pai) in which case you may want to go with the TOP 4 results. Personally, I am more of this camp. Getting to the top 4 in a tournament is already pretty hard and should be a good enough of a proxy for character strength.

    Looking across the results, my conclusions are

    - Jean and Taka may be overpowered (or players haven't gotten used to defending against them yet)

    - Pai and Wolf may be underpowered

    - Shun and Jeffry are strong but not as Godly as many feared (thus far)

    - Kage, Lau, Jacky and Sarah are firmly mid-tier (so each character's respective players can stop crying now)
     
  14. Llanfair

    Llanfair Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">or players haven't gotten used to defending against them yet</div></div>

    Although virtually impossible to quantify, I'd say this is playing a large factor to their success. I think if we were able to perform the same analysis for VF4:Evo shortly after its release, we may see a similar trend with Brad and Goh.

    Although I'm speculating, I don't think that the inability to defend against new characters applies as well to new characters introduced at the outset of a new VF (i.e Shun/Lion for 2, Taka/Aoi for 3, and Lei/Vanessa for 4) as players are also learning new game mechanics as well.
     
  15. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Ice-9: It is always good to look at things from a different perspective. Thanks for putting time in your analysis!

    As for Jean and Taka being overpowered...

    The skill level between players entering the tournament will vary considerably (uncontrolled variable). I assumed since the tournament format eliminates players that should generally be "less skilled," those making it to the finals should be at a more comparable skill level.

    Both Jean and Taka players have a high success in advancing to the semifinals. If you look at only the success rate of Jean and Taka finalists in winning the tournament (winner's column, players not making it to the finals are ignored), they are ranked average at best. So...I don't think they are overpowered, maybe overpowered for the less skilled or inexperience players.

    One month of data, especially with a recent system change, is not very reliable, imho. Give about two more months of tournament data and the ranking charts would be more consistent. The chart could look quite different from how it is now.

    If anyone have suggestions or ideas to better present or analyze the data (that won't take too much extra work) let me know!
     
  16. Slide

    Slide Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    ice-9, I think your list is all well and good, but something like a metagame, doesn't show on it. So there will always be that bias in the data.

    Take for example, Pai being so low right now, if you see the characters that are used the most, perhaps now Pai doesn't have as strong tools to battle those characters like before, or maybe those characters are better equipped to deal with Pai now.

    If there were more Goh's and Aoi's playing this time around, it might offset Sarah's numbers for example.

    Basically what I'm saying is that, a characters usage frequency can offset the characters that are unfavorable matchup wise.
     
  17. KrsJin

    KrsJin Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    One thing that impresses me so much about VF is the fact even the least played characters, are played quite a bit compared to the rest of the cast. You just don't find that in other fighters. Not in tournament play anyway.
     
  18. seven5suited

    seven5suited Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    Jin that's exactly what I was thinking. That's a concrete testament to the balance of the game.
     
  19. SDS_Overfiend1

    SDS_Overfiend1 Well-Known Member

    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    You could just tossed them charts out of the Window. The results are based on what YOU do. You control your own destiny if you ask me.
     
  20. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: VF5R Character Ranking Chart: 7/25/08-8/17/08

    A reply to a question about a Version C chart:

     

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