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Character Tournament Rankings in Japan

Discussion in 'Arcade' started by akai, Aug 19, 2007.

  1. Yupa

    Yupa Well-Known Member

    Re: Version B Rankings

    Thanks Akai, this is some really interesting stuff... I like the hard numbers approach vs. the intuitive approach most have used before.

    Seems to me like a lot of the Pai players were hacks... at least the Kage players can win when it counts.

    Looking forward to further updates.
     
  2. Darrius_Cole

    Darrius_Cole Well-Known Member

    PSN:
    Darrius-Cole
    XBL:
    Darrius Cole HD
    Re: Version B Rankings

    So the moral of the story is "Kage owns to high heaven."
     
  3. Yupa

    Yupa Well-Known Member

    Re: Version B Rankings

    at least 10 feet high...
     
  4. alucard

    alucard Well-Known Member

    Looks like little has changed since VF4FT, game balance wise that is.
     
  5. danny13

    danny13 Well-Known Member

    No dude. The balance in FT is way better imo.
     
  6. Sebo

    Sebo Well-Known Member Content Manager Taka Content Manager Jeffry

    PSN:
    Sebopants
    I'd rather against play FT Lei-Fei as well.

    lol
     
  7. ice-9

    ice-9 Well-Known Member

    Re: Version B Rankings

    Awesome, interesting info as always akai. A few questions I always wanted to ask:

    - What do the numbers listed in the table actually mean? How were they normalized -- can you also publish the raw data?

    - By standard deviation to determine above/below average rankings -- does this mean that if a character's win rate is say, 70%, he or she is above average, and if 30% it is below average assuming 50% is the average? Or something more complicated?

    - Is the data singles tournaments only? Or is team tournament data also included?

    I do however think your first set of data is more informative, in that it shows a progression of how a character performs. For example, in the complete chart you can see that Eileen's usage is actually only average but that she performs extremely well in the finals/winners stage. This suggests to me that she is probably an above average character, as opposed to say Jacky who a lot of people use but not as many win with.
     
  8. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: Version B Rankings

    Ice-9 - This is going to be a long post. Hope it answers your questions! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/laugh.gif

    Edit: The more I look at this post, it could be pretty confusing...

    Single tournaments only.

    The numbers in the ranking charts are based on two calculations: % character distribution and % character advancement. For each calculation, whoever have the best score is given the rank of 1 and the character with the worst score is given the rank of 17. The ranking charts numbers averaged the ranks from the two calculations. For example, Kage rank 1st in % character distribution score and rank 3rd in % character advancement for an average ranking score of 2nd.

    The Calculations
    The two type of calculations differs on what is being compared. The purpose of using two types of calculations to rank characters is that each calculation may have certain “biases†to characters that are either highly represented or lowly represented in tournaments. Thus, combining two different types of calculations can alleviate some of that bias.

    % Character Distribution – If all characters are balanced having no advantage or disadvantage against other characters, you would expect that at every portion of the tournament the % character distribution will remain the same. Hypothetically, if character A is the choice of 5.9% of the total tournament entries, then it should make up 5.9% of the total semifinalists, total finalists, and total tournament winners. However, if certain characters have more or less success in advancing to semifinals, finals, and winning the tournament there will be a change in % character distribution during the later portions of the tournaments.

    % Character Advancement – If all characters are balanced having no advantage or disadvantage against other characters, you would expect that each character will have the same chance as other characters in advancing to the next portion of the tournament. Hypothetically, a character has ~12.5% chance of advancing to the semifinals, then 50% chance to advance to the finals, and then 50% chance to win the tournament. However, if certain characters have more or less success in advancing to semifinals, finals, and winning the tournament compare to to other characters, their % chance to advance in the tournament may increase or decrease.

    Below is both the raw data I gathered from http://www.virtuafighter.jp/eve_all.html and the calculations I used to make the Version B Ranking Chart in the original post (June 11th, 2007 to July 23rd, 2007). Note that it is not very easy on the eye.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    For the most part, yup. If you look at the calculated data chart above, the last row is the standard deviation (SD) value for each column.

    Approximately:
    High/Low rankings is values > 2 SD
    Above Average/Below Average rankings is values > 1 SD
    Slightly Above Average/Slightly Below Average rankings is values > 0.5 SD
    Average rankings is values < 0.5 SD

    I made calculations at various parts of a tournament assuming that at the beginning of a tournament, the players’ skill can range from novice to advanced. The later portions of the tournament should have less novice players (eliminated from the tournament) and more advanced players; thus, the calculated data of the later portions of the tournament may reveal a character’s ability more than data from earlier portions of the tournament.

    In hindsight, due to tournament format, rankings for later portions of tournaments are not as statistically sound compare to calculations for earlier portions of tournaments.

    Only way to make it more statistically sound, is to increase the data set which is the reason I did the second chart for version B (November 2006 to July 2007). Unfortunately, the raw data is most complete for the last two months of tournaments. The website removes the tournament brackets for the older tournaments and list only the top 4 finishers in each tournament. Thus, I am unable to calculate "usage" and "semifinals" ranks. However, the "finals" and "winners" rankings are as informative as the first version B chart.

    Edit: Just to clarify on what each column in the ranking charts represent.

    Usage - Ranks which characters were chosen the most or used the most in tournaments.

    Semifinals - Of all the characters chosen, what characters used by players have more success in advancing to the semifinals.

    Finals - Out of all the semifinalists, what characters used by players have more success in advancing to the finals. Basically this column does not take into consideration the "Entry (Usage)" data and only considers the "Semifinals" data to determine ranks.

    Winners - Out of all the finalists, what characters used by players have more success in winning the tournament. This column does not take into consideration the "Entry (Usage)" data and "Semifinals" data. This column only looks at the "Finals" data to determine ranks.
     
  9. Camilo

    Camilo Member

    I have sooooo got to play that game!! im dyin to play it!!!
     
  10. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Version C - August Rankings

    Character Rankings Version C – August

    For comparison, Version B ranking chart from original post is next to the updated August chart.

    [​IMG]

    The most dramatic changes in a character’s rank is listed below -
    <u>
    Semifinals Rankings -</u>
    Wolf (-6 ranks)
    Pai (-7.5 ranks)

    <u>Final Rankings – </u>
    Jeffry (+13 ranks)
    Brad (+9.25 ranks)
    Jacky (+6.25 ranks)
    Akira (-6.5 ranks)
    Pai (-7.5 ranks)
    Lei (-8 ranks)

    <u>Winner Rankings -</u>
    Wolf (+10.75 ranks)
    Jacky (+6 ranks)
    Lei (-5.75 ranks)
    Lion (-6.25 ranks)
    Goh (-10.25 ranks)
    Shun (-12.25. ranks)

    Whether the difference in the two charts are due to month-to-month variance or version B-version C is debatable. Next update will be October.
     
  11. Unicorn

    Unicorn Well-Known Masher Content Manager Wolf

    PSN:
    unicorn_cz
    XBL:
    unicorn cz
    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    Nice, thanx!

    Will it be possible to ask you to steadily release not only ranking charts, but raw data too? I think they are interesting too /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/smile.gif
     
  12. Jigohro

    Jigohro Well-Known Member

    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    Wow, akai... you rock o_O. Thanks for all the info!

    But what the HECK happened to Goh in ver.C?? I've read he was barely even touched by change... Maybe just a bad month for Goh players...
     
  13. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    Unicorn, sure -

    [​IMG]

    Jigohro - I think its mostly a bad month. Characters that are played less will move up and down the rankings a lot easier than characters that are played more.
     
  14. ice-9

    ice-9 Well-Known Member

    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    akai, thanks for the answers. One more quick clarification question: under the "semis" column, do the numbers stand for the number of players that made it to the semis, or the number of players who made it but then lost at the semis? I.e. if I want to know the total number of Akira players who made it to the semis and beyond, is it 69 or is it 69 + 30 + 30 = 129? I'm guessing the latter based on the way data is presented in virtuafighter.co.jp
     
  15. ice-9

    ice-9 Well-Known Member

    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    I needed a break from work and decided to recut the data. See below for my results, Version B only:

    In terms of winning percentage (for 1st place) relative to the number of entries:
    Kage 6.5%
    Shun 5.9%
    Eileen 4.8%
    Akira 3.6%
    Lau 3.0%
    Lei 2.9%
    Brad 2.6%
    Jacky 2.5%
    Pai 2.5%
    Vanessa 2.4%
    Goh 2.3%
    Aoi 2.1%
    Blaze 2.1%
    Lion 2.0%
    Wolf 1.9%
    Sarah 1.4%
    Jeffry 0.7%

    In terms of winning percentage at the championship game (to determine 1st from 2nd place):
    Shun 63%
    Eileen 62%
    Kage 56%
    Vanessa 54%
    Brad 52%
    Blaze 50%
    Goh 50%
    Akira 49%
    Lion 48%
    Lei 48%
    Jacky 47%
    Aoi 46%
    Lau 45%
    Pai 43%
    Wolf 38%
    Sarah 32%
    Jeffry 29%

    Which is more indicative of character strength? Both lists are relevant.

    The winning percentage relative to the number of entries is a good stat for forming a tier list for tournament level players. But is tournament level necessarily elite level? I think the two are highly correlated, but there's no question there are lots of players who enter tournaments with no chance of winning.

    The winning percentage for the championship game on the other hand is more relevant for elite players, because presumably whoever can get to the championship game of a tournament is an elite level player. I also think the sample set is large enough for the results to be meaningful.

    How do the above compare to the Tougeki tier list? Here they are again as a reminder:
    1st - Eileen, Kage, Lei, Pai, Shun
    2nd - Brad, Goh, Jacky, Lau, Vanessa, Wolf
    3rd - Akira, Blaze, Lion, Jeffry
    4th - Aoi, Sarah

    Tier list as suggested by winning percentage relative to the number of entries:
    1st - Kage, Shun, Eileen, Akira
    2nd - Lau, Lei, Brad, Jacky, Pai, Vanessa, Goh
    3rd - Aoi, Blaze, Lion, Wolf
    4th - Sarah, Jeffry

    Tier list as suggested by winning percentage for the championship game:
    1st - Shun, Eileen
    2nd - Kage, Vanessa, Brad
    3rd - Blaze, Goh, Akira, Lion, Lei, Jacky, Aoi, Lau, Pai
    4th - Wolf, Sarah, Jeffry

    What stands out? Sarah and Jeffry are consistently rated low. Aoi and Akira may be better than we thought, while Pai and Wolf may not be as stong as advertised. Shun, Eileen, and Kage are definitely top tier.
     
  16. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    Ice-9 - In the raw data charts, the semifinalists are the players who made it to the semifinals but lost at the semifinals.

    I agreed with the last sentence in your quote. Beginning of tournaments--the skill level between players will vary considerably. The further into tournament, the skill level between players will be less.
     
  17. Unicorn

    Unicorn Well-Known Masher Content Manager Wolf

    PSN:
    unicorn_cz
    XBL:
    unicorn cz
    Re: Version C - August Rankings

    I just made a Ver B (PS3 version) statistic of how succesfull every character wass in reaching top4 players on tournaments in compare to how many characters start at that tournaments. I think top 4 of avarenge 32 players at tourney is good point where luck and so playes not-so-big role

    Statistic are: Name / starting / top4 / % succes
    Kage / 1516 / 305 / 20,12
    Shun / 578 / 89 / 15,40
    Akira / 1121 / 158 / 14,09
    Jacky / 1043 / 147 / 14,09
    Lau / 1055 / 140 / 13,27
    Lei / 823 / 104 / 12,64
    Eileen / 880 / 105 / 11,93
    Pai / 1268 / 147 / 11,59
    Wolf / 889 / 102 / 11,47
    Goh / 439 / 47 / 10,71
    Aoi / 561 / 59 / 10,52
    Blaze / 771 / 80 / 10,38
    Lion / 657 / 67 / 10,20
    Brad / 532 / 52 / 9,77
    Sarah / 724 / 68 / 9,39
    Vanessa / 587 / 52 / 8,86
    Jeffry / 591 / 42 / 7,11

    omg Jeffry just sucks /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/frown.gif
     
  18. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Version B - Character-Specifc Matchups

    This is based on the Version B finalist (1st and 2nd place) match-ups that I used to make the Tournament Ranking Charts.

    [​IMG]

    How to read the charts:
    Looking at the Character's "Rows," you are looking at his/her wins or win ratio, respectively. Looking at a Character's "Column", you are looking at his/her losses or loss ratio, respectively.

    For example, let's say we are interested on how Wolf players fair against Kage players for 1st place. Going down the rows in the first chart, I find Wolf's Row. Next, I looked to the right and find Kage's Column. One can see from the Wolf's Row / Kage's Column entry that Wolf have won 6 times against Kage. Looking at the second chart, those 6 victories give Wolf a measly 0.16 win ratio (16%) against Kage. If you want to see how much losses that actually entails, you can go to the first chart and look for Wolf's Column / Kage's Row entry (Wolf loses to Kage 29 times).

    Note: The color "rankings" is somewhat deceiving due to low amount of certain character specific matches. So for the most part, I would just ignore the colors. Enjoy!
     
  19. akai

    akai Moderator Staff Member Bronze Supporter

    PSN:
    Akai_JC
    XBL:
    Akai JC
    Version C - September Rankings

    [​IMG]

    The most dramatic changes in a character's rank (September from August) is listed below -

    Semifinals Rankings -
    Blaze (+6 ranks)
    Eileen (-5 ranks)
    Wolf (+8 ranks)

    Final Rankings –
    Aoi (-7.5 ranks)
    Blaze (+7 ranks)
    Goh (-9 ranks)
    Jacky (+5.25 ranks)
    Sarah (+7 ranks)
    Vanessa (-7.25 ranks)

    Winner Rankings -
    Aoi (+5 ranks)
    Brad (-10.75 ranks)
    Lau (+6.75 ranks)
    Lion (+5 ranks)
    Sarah (+8.75 ranks)
    Shun (+5.25 ranks)
    Vanessa (-5.25 ranks)
    Wolf (-6 ranks)
     
  20. Yupa

    Yupa Well-Known Member

    Re: Version C - September Rankings

    WOOT Ver C Sarah!!!
    =)
     

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